Firstly, the notion that the maximum win rate in trading can only be 50% is incorrect.

The idea that the win rate can only be 50% originates from the probability of a coin toss, where the chances of landing on heads or tails are roughly 50% when a coin is tossed randomly and sufficiently many times, and the more times it is tossed, the closer the result approaches 50%. However, a coin has only two sides, whereas trading involves not only the win rate but also the risk-reward ratio. Moreover, the risk-reward ratio is inversely related to the success rate; all other conditions being equal, the higher the success rate, the lower the risk-reward ratio will be.

Therefore, discussing win rates without considering the risk-reward ratio is misleading at best.

The question mentions that if one opens positions based on fixed criteria, follows rigid rules, and sets a 1:1 risk-reward ratio, one's success rate can reach 70%.

With a 1:1 risk-reward ratio and a success rate of 80%, this trading system can be considered very good, even miraculous. In 100 trades, with 70 correct and 30 incorrect, the profit could reach 40% (with a position size of 1%). Such a high success rate in a trading system is rarely encountered in the market, or at least I have not seen it.

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Based on my years of experience, a trading system with a 1:1 risk-reward ratio and a success rate of 60% is already considered excellent.

I believe there might be three statistical issues at play here:

1: The number of trades analyzed is insufficient.

For example, if one concludes a success rate of 70-80% after analyzing only a dozen or so trades, the sample size is too small to be statistically significant, and the results are not objective.

2: The time period for analysis is not sufficient.Technical methods each have their corresponding supportive and non-supportive market trends. For instance, a trading strategy that capitalizes on trend breaks tends to have a particularly high success rate during extended periods of consistent market movement. For example, if the daily chart has been trending in one direction for several months, conducting 15-minute break trades during this period will likely yield a high success rate. However, this high rate is derived from statistics within specific market trends and is not achievable in all market conditions. Once a volatile market is encountered, the trading success rate will decrease, leading to losses and a lower overall success rate.

In a good year, the harvest of wheat in the fields will certainly be good, but the harvest of a good year does not represent the average annual yield of wheat.

3: Inadequate statistical diligence.

I have observed that many people are fond of using phrases like "roughly calculated," "probably," etc. Data is data; the presence of these terms indicates uncertainty about your statistical results or merely a vague impression, which is not serious or rigorous enough. Trading outcomes must be definitive data.

A reminder to everyone: The three issues I've mentioned are common among traders. Many people may develop a mistaken understanding of their trading systems due to insufficient time frames for backtesting and data analysis, inadequate quantity levels, or lack of diligence and thoroughness in their statistics. Human nature tends to optimistically overestimate one's own trading system, which is colloquially referred to as: always thinking one's own child is better than others.

If such cognitive biases are formed, they may lead to profits in short-term backtesting and simulation, but problems arise in real trading. Doubts about the market, the effectiveness of the trading system, and one's own abilities can ensue, ultimately preventing profitability, which is a common scenario.

Therefore, when conducting backtesting, one must be objective, patient, and ensure a sufficiently long time frame and adequate quantity.

Here is a reference for backtesting data:

For trades at the hourly chart level, at least three years of backtesting is required, with a minimum of 200 occurrences.For 15-minute level trading, at least one year of review is required, with the number of reviews reaching over 200 times.

For 4-hour level trading, at least five to six years of review is necessary, with the number of reviews reaching over 200 times.

For daily line trading, the review should extend to over ten years, with the number also reaching at least 200 times.

In summary: Trading profits are determined by two factors, the success rate and the profit-loss ratio. Discussing only the win rate without considering the profit-loss ratio is meaningless. Moreover, in trend-based trading systems, the success rate is often below 50%, and it is the advantage of the profit-loss ratio that allows for overall profitability. There is no need to excessively pursue a high success rate in trading. Achieving a balance between the success rate and the profit-loss ratio, and reducing the difficulty of executing the trading system, is the only way to make a profit.